FTI Consulting Projects U.S. Holiday Retail Sales to Grow 3.3 Percent
FTI Consulting’s Retail & Consumer Products practice projects a 3.3 percent increase in retail sales this holiday season, roughly in line with 2015’s 3.4 percent gain. A slight moderation of income growth and household wealth gains heading into the season is the primary reason for modest expectations, according to the report, which considers General Merchandise, Apparel and Accessories, Furniture and Other Sales (“GAFO”) retail sales and non-store sales from
“The season is shaping up to be another lackluster one for retailers,” said
Shoppers have come to expect traditional retailers to be price competitive with online retailers such as
In the aggregate, in-store sales growth has gradually trended lower each year since 2012 and recently turned negative. In contrast, non-store sales, including both online and catalog purchases, have consistently grown by a low double-digit rate and have accelerated since 2015.
According to FTI Consulting’s recently released U.S. Online Retail Forecast: Omni-Channel Retailing Challenged by Its Success, online retail sales growth has accelerated slightly in the past year to just over 14 percent. The forecast projects U.S. online retail sales will approach
“The 2016 holiday season is just one waypoint on the larger journey for retailers,” Ms. Hart said. “Larger retailers must contend with the daunting challenge of defending market share and profitability in an environment where sales continue to move away from stores and profits are being squeezed. This is not a path that many retailers can continue on indefinitely.”
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